China has spent 1,016 days in “isolation” and is looking to open its borders on January 8th!
Going from some of the world’s strictest restrictions to almost none.
It was a tough time
- Millions were quarantined or hauled off to fever camps, often arbitrarily. Amateur videos captured residents leaping to their deaths from apartment blocks after weeks of seclusion.
- In major cities daily life stood still for months on end. A life without international travel.
- Foreign entrepreneurs and executives were barred from returning to their homes:
- Overseas tourism has collapsed
The pendulum is swinging to “business as usual”
The rebound of the Chinese economy could account for two-thirds of global growth in the next few years . (The economist Jan 23 )
Increased commodity Prices
This could fuel inflation with an Increased demand for energy and commodities will be felt around the world.
It consumes almost one-fifth of the world’s oil, over half of refined copper, nickel and zinc, and more than three-fifths of iron ore. In November Goldman Sachs has predicted the price of copper would increase to $11,000.
Increase demand for lng gas and Increase crude imports throughout the year could push up oil prices by about $15 per barrel.
People getting back to work
Chineses people are hankering to get to work - “the great resignation does not seem to be a problem” says Richard Yuan - Australia’s leading China Expert
There were no stimulus cheques - the great resignation does not seem to be an issue
- People who lost their jobs, will return to work quickly when the opportunity arises, which will help cope with the increasing demand .
Property recovery
In November, as covid restrictions were relaxed, policymakers eased property developers’ access to financing they may make further cuts to mortgage rates and down-payment requirements.
Chinese travellers- a boon for the tourist and travel industry
selling tourist destinations to Chinese citizens upper classes whos spend 3-4 months a year travel vs zero
Thailand, Hong Kong , Australia, Singapore , Vietnam
should be recipients of increased tourism
China is wanting to keep their place in the global supply chain,” with delegations of officials and businesspeople from all over China including - Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Zhejiang - planning overseas trips to “grab orders” and win back investors
“A meeting is worth a thousand emails”
Inspiration
What the great reopening means for China—and the world from TheEconomist