An Ode to Aga



It’s not what you say, it’s how you say it.


To me this post written by Michael Kretzmer from Bulawayo, evokes the warmest feelings about days of long ago! 


“When you opt out of normal city life to become a Hobbit and buy a crumbling Hobbity house by a large Hobbity pond you have to adapt to Hobbit ways of keeping warm to stay alive. Wood, coal, that sort of thing.  

 

This week I serviced our Aga. I realise this small revelation into the domestic affairs Chez Kretzmer and the very mention of the word Aga might not immediately have won me friends and the words ‘wot a tosser!’ and ‘let’s torch him!’ may have escaped a few lips but let me tell you the Kretzmer Aga is nothing like the Agas you read about in the mags, see in the movies or yearn for in your secret dreams, losers. Ours is one of those ancient ones, a cast iron, unmovable prehistoric monstrosity that essentially props up the eastern side of the house and from September to April every year dominates my life. 


Our Aga burns anthracite coal and was built for the days when servants were cheap and very cheerful.  To keep Aga running, every day I have to pad across the slippery yard to the dirty coal shed, fill a large bucket by driving it into the coal pile three or four times, schlep across the slippery yard back into the kitchen - it’s heavy, about 20kg - then put it down next to Aga and get the tool to remove Aga’s central furnace iron plug. I then have to extricate the white hot seal, put it down carefully, then lift the coal bucket and pour some anthracite coals through the hole right into the glowing furnace. Then have to peek inside to ensure its burning at the requisite billion degrees without losing my eyebrows before replacing the heavy iron seal. Then I get on my knees, prise open the lower furnace door with another tool, hook it under the circular coal grate and riddle (yes, there even a stupid word for it) it so the ashes drop into the ashcan tray.  This I do twice a day and on every third day I have to remove the tray which is full of red hot ash and transfer it back out the door, across the slippery yard to the ash pile which itself has to be carted off every three weeks or so. 


In defence of Aga, I gotta point out that she has kept me fit for six winters now and that a large slab of hot, beautifully crafted  metal, in and upon which you can cook, warm and dry anything, which fills the rattling old house with a spine of warmth for about a quid a day and which my late dog Jock, the greatest Staffie ever to have lived, voted the Greatest Place of Earth for a Staffie to Crash Out By is not all bad either.


Who wants an Aga? 


Responses 


John H Abeles 


One never forgets certain smells


I remember ours in Inyati where I spent my first few years... It was a huge, heavy range, with multiple  interesting , spring enhanced doors for coal or wood, for ovens, for ash  collectors ..


Not infrequently I came too close and felt the searing heat coming from it .. 


We also, like you, used it to cook, to heat the house ( with a thatched roof), heat the house water, and dry the clothes ( when cold or raining outside)


Lord knows how much fine, imperceptible soot I inhaled into my young lungs - but the crackling sounds, the aroma and the sight of Ma Phipps - she was fostering me when my mother was in hospital - hovering over it with mealie paap on the boil, eggs frying, and (don’t spread this around) bacon in the pan, are sharp memories that have not been expunged in the slightest”


Julie Duik - You had me at "this week I serviced our Aga".  Not a skill you learned at Carmel or Milton


Joe Krige This photo of your Aga exudes homeliness and deserves the multitude of calories you expend keeping its calorie requirements in check.


Rossalind Gower 

Oh I grew up with one and loved coming home on a cold winters day to warm my hands and bottom on it while waiting for the kettle to boil for tea on one of the hot plates and warming a scone in the oven. So worth the schlepping out for coal and riddling the ashes every day. 


Crystal May Darrot 

What a Beauty! 😍😍Living in Henley 15 years ago I could do anything with it, Bake, stews, roasting, hot water for bath's an keeping the house warm.an loved the smell when making the fire, very Homely enjoy your Aga 💞💞💞💞


Gail Loon Lustig - 

Your use of "monstrosity" gives your roots away. A word used in our house growing up which drew immediate attention specially as it was said with a conviction you couldn't ignore... 

The warmth down your way enviable


Me

- I love everything about this ode to Aga by Michael Kretzmer son  of Dr Chaim and Yoggie - bro of Andrea 

How to work out your life purpose in a few minutes

How to be happy in your life?

  • Who you are - name
  • What do you love to do - what can you choose to teach other people 
  • Who you do it for - who do you want serve 
  • What do they want or need? 
  • How do they transform as a result of what you give them 

  • I’m Ivan
  • I teach people to connect and collaborate 
  • Entrepreneurs, business owners and leaders
  • People and money
  • I help you  grow your business more than you thought possible 

It’s all about the customer - outward facing 





21 Gems on what it takes to be successful - shared by a billionaire




1. It’s all about the Customer - give them what they want and you will get what you want 


2. Everything you do is 95-5- focus on the 5 


3. Be the bull


4. Keep punching 


5. When times are bad we forget they will be good again and visa versa 


6. You are only a few steps from shit happenning 


7. Know what you know and don’t know what you don’t know 


8. You gotta know what you good at and find that to use that as your shtick


9. Take someone good and make them better 


10. “You always know where you stand with me “


11. People choose the wrong company to work for 


12. Interviewer makes promises that never happen 



13. Where can you be in 5 years - know that with clarity

Abs and Abc  Always be selling and always be closing 


14. You are always selling - if not products - yourself - or your company 


15. Know your numbers 


16. Know your business - and do what you are good at 


17 Consumer does not come to us Unless you have a great product And you let them know that you have a great product 


18. Always remember take care of customer


19. Don’t assume anything 


20. Seperate yourself from anyone else 


21. Take responsibility for where you are - it’s both nes fault except your own 

“ vernetztarbeiten- to network” effectively - you need to know yourself



A key factor  to becoming  successful is “ vernetztarbeiten- to network” - to build strong relationships and interact effectively with  people and technology around you and with organisations in which you work .


  • It’s about connection, collaboration and contribution 
  • It’s about lifelong learning 
  • It’s not about man or machine - it’s about man and machine 
  • It’s about being the pilot of your professional life 


In order to network effectively and build strong relationships with others  - step number one is to build a strong relationship with yourself.  


In Ancient Greece, the philosopher Socrates famously declared that the meaning of life can be reduced to two Words


  “Know yourself” 


In his  book ‘Managing oneself’ - written more then 20 years ago, Peter Drucker suggested that in order to be successful 

 - you need to have a heightened self conscience -  you need to  “know yourself”  

 you need to  “manage yourself”


This is especially true in today’s “distributed or hybrid workplace”  where “clocking in and clocking out” and “paternalistic management” is a thing of the past. 


So - How do you manage yourself? 


Isabel De Clercq - “trend catcher , sparkle architect and fire starter” - whose mantra is to “connect, share and lead” suggests that to develop more self awareness you can start by answering 5 simple questions - that is not always so simple to answer! 


1. What are your strenghts? < I try to find them writing down each day what went well. After a month -  patterns arise. > 


2. How do you prefer to learn? < writing - reading - listening >


3. How and where do you prefer to work < team member or alone - in a big or a small company - in a predictable environment or in vibrant start-up > 


4. Do your organization’s ethics resonate with your own values? 


5. Do you know what is the best way you can contribute to the success of your organization? 



I prefer questions number 4 and 2. Which are your favourites? 


Thank you Tanmay Vora  for the sketchnote shared on Instagram. 






#learning #futureofwork #lifelonglearning #nexttechrevolution #nexttech 

Support for Innovation and R&D


The Government has encouraged R&D spend by innovators to boost advanced manufacturing in the wake of the coronavirus recession.

Under the new package, a proposed $4 million cap on claims for businesses generating less than $20 million per year will be abandoned and replaced with a rate of 18.5 percentage points above the claimant's corporate tax rate. (Up from 16%, but still 43.5% for those still in loss)

If you are doing R&D and you are in a tax loss position - you can get back 43.5pc of your R&D spend in 💰 cash  by cashing in your tax losses 

Find your purpose with 2 easy questions




Heather E. McGowan always finds a way to make concepts easy to understand and provides practical ways to take action.


She shares a great article by Darius Fox 

https://medium.com/darius-foroux/play-this-game-to-discover-your-purpose-92246cf46275


The secret of success you need 2 things ..... 


1. identify what you are passionate about.... what’s your purpose 


and 


2. focus on your strengths. 


In life, it’s all about figuring out what your tool is and where you can put it to work effectively.


How do you find that out? ..... simple says Heather McGowan - ask 2 questions...

  1. What am I good at 
  2. Do I enjoy it

When you identify one and answer yes to 2 - 💥 boom!


Rose Kattackal shares another tool


Simple and very effective. writes one's strengths and then match it  to what problem/challenge it may solve. A key ingredient  is to actually enjoy using their strengths to solve those problems.


Mike Drak believes that we are all part of some kind of master plan and that each of us has been created for a reason. Each of us has been given unique skills, abilities, and a special mission that needs to be fulfilled; and until we find out what that special purpose is and start working on it, we will never feel complete. He has finally figured out mine and life has never been better!

THE 10 COMMANDMENTS OF LINKEDIN FOR BUSINESS





Great Post by My friend James Tuckerman - founder it’s Anthill https://b2bschool.co/the-10-commandments-of-linkedin-for-business/

Very relevant after our great session with Ahmad Imam This week!  http://bbg2020.blogspot.com/2020/09/ahmad-imam-how-to-grow-your-linkedin_24.html?m=1

Most people use LinkedIn as an extension of their CV, as a way to get their next job. But if you run your own business, you want to boost connections, open doors, attract leads, grab the attention of normally hard-to-reach decision makers and get more clients, yes?

That’s what the 10 commandments are all about!

1. KNOW THY END GOAL

What do you want to achieve? How do you plan to get your new connections OFF LinkedIn and into some form of commercial relationship? How does a client relationship begin in your world?

TIP: Create an Optin Gift that you can offer to new connections and get your new connections into your database (or CRM).


2. KNOW THY TARGET AUDIENCE

Can you describe your ideal client in a way that LinkedIn will understand? You could say that your target audience is made up of ‘Socially Aware Business Leaders’. But LinkedIn would struggle with that. Alternatively, maybe try ‘CEO of a Not-For-Profit’? LinkedIn can help you track down THAT person.

TIP: Think in terms of ‘titles’ and ‘industries’ and ‘biz size’ and ‘location’, rather than ‘mindset’ or ‘attitude’ or ‘needs’. (LinkedIn can’t tell you what people need.)


3. CONNECT WITH <100 PER DAY

If you connect with 100 people a day, that’s 700 a week. Only 30% will accept your connection request. Yet, that’s 210 new targeted connections per week. About 3%-4% will be actively looking for the solution you offer. This strategy, therefore, has the potential to help you attract 6-8 very interested prospects per week. (That’s 24-32 per month, more than one hot prospect per working day.)

TIP: You don’t need to do this manually. There are ‘set and forget’ automation tools IF you are able to define your audience in a way that LinkedIn can find on your behalf.

WANT TO KNOW WHAT AUTOMATION TOOLS WE USE? CLICK HERE.


4. DO NOT SEND PERSONALIZED CONNECTION REQUESTS

This goes against common wisdom. You’d think that most people would be more likely to say ‘Yes’ to a bespoke connection request, right? Wrong. Say less and give people a reason to check out your profile. They are more likely to accept your connection request after they have invested a little bit of time getting to know you.

TIP: Use the default LinkedIn connection request message: “Hi @firstname, I’d like to join your LinkedIn network.”


5. IT’S YOUR PROFILE. BUT MAKE IT ABOUT THEM.

When someone checks out your profile, they are consciously or subconsciously asking themselves that usually unspoken question: ‘What’s in this for me?’ Why should I connect with this person? No-one cares that you are an ‘innovative leader’ or captained under 14s netball. Why do they need you?

TIP: Upgrade your profile so that it describes the specific ways you can help your target audience.


6. JUST SAY, ‘YES’.

Be LESS discerning about who you choose to accept as a connection. It’s almost impossible to second-guess who is likely to be a quality connection or not. And the more first-degree connections you have, the more second-degree connections you unlock. Are you unintentionally closing yourself off to opportunities? Just say, ‘Yes’. 

TIP: Accept all incoming connection requests from humans with photos. If someone acts spammy, block them. 


7. LAY OUT THE WELCOME MAT

Most people, when setting up their LinkedIn account, inadvertently create barriers. Instead, make it easier for others to connect with you. A simple way to do that is to publish your email address at the top of your profile. You may occasionally get a weird or spammy email. (Just block.) But you are more likely to get inbound emails from potential clients.


TIP: Publish the email address you use for LinkedIn. This will make it easier for others to send you a connection request via LinkedIn.

8. THOU SHALT NOT PITCH TO STRANGERS

Have you had this happen to you? You accept a connection request and, then, within minutes, you receive a list of services that your new connection wants to sell you? Or, you’re unceremoniously invited to book a call, to ‘explore ways that I might be able to help you?’ (I.E. ‘explore what products and services I might be able to sell to you?’) Don’t be that person. Build trust first.


TIP: Ask questions. Provide free resources. Be helpful. This can all be automated, but automation alongside personal engagement is better.

9. GIVE MEETINGS REAL PURPOSE

I get variations of this message all the time: “Let’s chat. We have a lot in common and may be able to support each other.” What’s the problem with this offer to connect? It’s too vague! WIIFM? We are all busy. Give your meeting requests a purpose. We don’t offer vague invitations to catch up. When the time is right, we offer a ‘B2B Funnel Mapping Session’. It’s an outcome focused conversation and no-one’s time is wasted.


TIP: Publish the email address you use for LinkedIn. This will make it easier for others to send you a connection request via LinkedIn.


WANT TO GIVE YOUR MEETINGS REAL PURPOSE? CLICK HERE.


10. DON’T JUST AUTOMATE

When someone replies to any of your messages on LinkedIn (even automated messages), reply as soon as you can. Even a ‘thumbs up’ is better than nothing. If someone comments on one of your status updates or articles, reply… every time. Show your gratitude. Spend perhaps 10 minutes a day just liking and commenting on posts in your LinkedIn feed. It all goes a long way. 

TIP: Download the LinkedIn app for your smartphone. Then schedule a coffee break every day. Spend 10 minutes chillaxing, leaving replies and showing support. Too easy! 


$8 billion has been given away leaving Chuck Feeney Broke and Happy


It took decades, but this week , 89 year old Chuck Feeney, the former billionaire cofounder of retail giant Duty Free Shoppers has finally given all his money away ($8b) to charity. He has nothing left now—and he couldn’t be happier.


This week Chuck and his wife Helga signed the documents marking the end of Atlantic Philanthropies in a Zoom ceremony on Monday after 40 years of giving. 


He  said he was very happy with giving away his entire fortune, over $8b, on various donations “on my watch.”


Chuck Feeney is the James Bond of philanthropy. Over the last 40 years he’s crisscrossed the globe conducting a clandestine operation to give away an $8 billion fortune derived from hawking cognac, perfume and cigarettes in his empire of duty-free shops. 


His foundation, the Atlantic Philanthropies, has funneled billions  into education, science, health care, aging and civil rights in the U.S., Australia, Vietnam, Bermuda, South Africa and Ireland. 


Chuck’s story


Chuck Feeney was born into a modest blue-collar family in New Jersey in 1931. His parents were Irish-American. 


While young and poor, he read Andrew Carnegie’s classic essay, “The Gospel of Wealth”.


Andrew Carnegie’s essay was a revolutionary call for those who create wealth to live modestly, and to give all their excess wealth to support others while still alive: “Giving while living.”


Chuck decided at that moment that he would dedicate his life to create wealth to give away, saying “I want the last cheque I write to bounce.”


He founded the Duty Free Shoppers Group in 1960 with his college classmate Robert Warren Miller - after arranging for soldiers to buy duty free at ports that they were stationed at. This led to the  concept of duty-free shopping in airports.


Ever bought anything from a DFS shop at an airport? That’s Chuck’s company.


Duty Free Shoppers became one of the most successful retailers that was sold in 1982 - and since then his mission has been to give it all away before he dies - and at 89 and in poor health - Chuck and his wife has achieved their goal! 




What makes Chuck happy


Chuck has  lived a very frugal lifestyle. Today, at 89years old he does not own a home or a car. He still famously wears a watch he bought for $15, and he carries his papers in a plastic bag.


Chuck says “I always tried to live my life as though nothing changed. People would say, 'You can have a Rolls-Royce'. I'd say to that, 'What do I want with a Rolls-Royce when I can have a bike?’"


Instead of measuring his success by his level of money in the bank, he measures it by his level of happiness: “I'm happy when I’m helping people and unhappy when what I'm doing isn't helping people.”


Chuck has donated over $8b anonymously to charities and causes around the world .

“Giving it away and making a difference while I’m alive is more satisfying than when I am dead....”


He is also a role model to fellow billionaire Warren Buffett and Bill Gates - who has followed his footsteps in pledging 


What makes him happy is to  “improve the lives of our fellow humans”


Some of his Donations


Feeney has donated to thousands of causes over his lifetime most of which have been anonymous.


Here are some particularly important ones that have been disclosed. 


He is credited with funding peace efforts in Northern Ireland, sent huge donations to Vietnam which were used to bring their public health system to a modern standard, and gave hundreds of millions (in some cases billions) to universities including Cornell. Hundreds of millions of dollars that Cornell received were used to revitalize Roosevelt Island in New York City and create the Cornell NYC Tech Campus on the island.


Chuck Feeney’s legacy


Chucks  story has inspired Bill Gates to also give all his money away, and to launch the Giving Pledge, which now has 142 of the World’s Billionaires pledging to give the majority of their wealth away while alive - including Richard Branson, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Warren Buffett and many more.


Bill Gates credits Chuck for the new age of giving, saying “Chuck Feeney is a remarkable role model, and the ultimate example of giving while living.”


Laurene Powell Jobs told Forbes. “Spending down his resources during his lifetime has inspired a generation of philanthropists, including me. And his dedication to anonymous giving — and focus on addressing the problems of the day — reflect the strength of his character and social conscience. We all follow in his footsteps.”


“How would you feel if  everything you make will be given away to a cause far bigger than yourself? And you commit to contribute the money you are yet to make?”


Feeney’s legacy has been to show people the benefits of  “giving while living” and enjoying  seeing the fruits of his investment  play out, which certainly seems like a better approach than hanging onto all of it until death and then leaving a foundation for the children to fight about where the money will eventually end up.


“To those wondering about Giving While Living” says Chuck “Try it, you’ll like it.”




The Covid 19 Diaries of Dr David Gotlieb



Dr David Gotlieb has been on the money re Covid-19 - what he writes about makes sense ......

The Covid 19 Diaries of Dr David Gotlieb.

Physician, Rheumatologist.

Cape Town. South Africa.


The Covid Diaries of Dr David Gotlieb. Cape Town. South Africa.

Includes original articles of April and follow up articles July, August and October 2020


—————————————————————


COVID conversations October 30 2020.

An update.




The Covid diaries of Dr David Gotlieb.

Rheumatologist, Cape Town. South Africa.

Thoughts and opinions.

October 29 2020 update


People keep referring to the second wave of corona sweeping around the world.

I see it as the third wave.

The third wave looks worse than the second wave.


It’s an unknown pathway and we will need to be cautious about big gatherings.

Israel has been one of the first to see a third wave and its already post peak.

Europe is spiking more than even the first waves.

Massive increases in Belgium and France Netherlands and Italy.

Sweden also is seeing the third wave.

Looking at the Israel experience, Phase 3 is lasting 6 to 8 weeks.

Overseas they are going up largely because of complacency with the mild phase two.


It would seem that winter is an aggravating factor as originally thought.

However note that Israel and the Mediterranean spikes are still in hot weather conditions. 

Therefore summer does not make the Southern Hemisphere immune.


Deaths are also slightly increasing although not as bad as the first wave.

Demographic data of the new deaths are necessary.

We must not be complacent.

South Africa is about to get the second wave.

Phase two will last 1 month and then the spike will occur of phase 3.

In South Africa we will accelerate at end of November and deteriorate through December.


People must be aware that big gatherings are a problem at the moment.

if we are not careful, it’s going to take off BIG TIME.


Lockdowns are not appropriate at this time but we must continue to protect the elderly and apply common sense.

Symptomatic people must keep self quarantined.


Therefore: 

Beware of big gatherings ... no matter how inconvenient.

We need to be sensible.

Keep safe.

Our hospitals are going to have to get ready again.


Regarding therapy, I remain supportive of early use hydroxychloroquine in standard dose (not high dose), and azithromycin as before. Later use is not beneficial.

Remdesivir in hospital is not as dramatic a response as we would like and neither is plasma antibody therapy.

Supportive oxygen techniques remain the major advances, and ventilation absolute last resort.

Dexamethazone and steroids are the principal therapies for in hospital use plus antibiotics and anticoagulants.

IL6 inhibitors have also been dissapointing.


I still do not see a vaccine coming.


I blame no politicians as it’s a virus and no one can stop transmission, other than common sense.

The virus is NOT fake news.

The virus is NOT just flu.

The virus is NOT a hoax.


If you are symptomatic...stay at home and isolate.

Use of masks is controversial, but I support them for public use when out of the household, and especially for hospital workers.


Dr David Gotlieb 

Rheumatologist.

Cape Town 

Oct 29 2020


———————————————————


Covid diaries

 August  19th 2020.

An update.


My predictions re the covid 19 epidemic seem to be coming true.

The surges are not associated with surges in deaths.

The virus will dissipate by itself.

There are no vaccines coming.


Deaths take place over 4 months no matter where in the world.


In Cape Town, we were first in the country due to the tourism issue, we are 6 weeks ahead of the rest of the country.

Our deaths will subside at end August / early September.

The rest of the country, deaths will subside mid October.

Surges will follow BUT DEATHS WILL NOT DRAMATICALLY SURGE.

In the USA, New York was first and death rates are now VERY low. 

The rest of the country, ie Florida, is 6 weeks after New York.

Deaths are already subsiding.


SURGES WILL OCCUR BUT NOT DEATHS.

Economies must opened after the deaths dissipate.

It’s NOT ABOUT CASE NUMBERS.

We will still need to protect the vulnerable, especially the elderly.


A vaccine is not coming and the virus will dissipate by itself, in terms of virulence and increased community resistance.


The economies will slowly recover, but South Africa will battle as our economy is severely affected and we started at a low base level.

We are an african country and are progressively no longer exceptional from the rest of the continent.


Our political leaders require to review our excessive regulatory issues that are holding us back. 

We are going to go through hard socioeconomic times.

It’s not too late to reverse our deterioration, but political will is required and I hope our leadership can make the hard choices.

I am not optimistic in that regard.


Dr David Gotlieb.

August 19 2020.

Cape Town

South Africa.


——————————————————————————


Covid report July 2020


July 14 2020


My Covid opinion update to my article from April this year.

Covid and covid therapeutic update 


My article from April, remains as relevant now as when I wrote it.

I would not change any aspect of its content, but further addition is required.


This represents an update on how I see it.


I still am a hydroxy/chlo supporter, and a recent study supported it.

The previous studies were at excessive doses and showed some cardio toxicity.

However normal doses are safe.

I suggest consider the following, with your doctors guidance.

If exposed AND develop symptoms consider start chloroquine sulphate 200mg one daily or hydroxychloroquine 400mg daily. Continue until better.

If start a cough..start azithromycin one daily for 6 days

If become breathlessness..you would need admission and at that time steroids can be started.

I would only use the cortisone in hospital use.

NB

I would also use a cardiovascular dose ecotrin or aspirin if symptomatic.

In hospital low molecular weight heparins should be added to aspirin for more comprehensive anticoagulation.

Oxygen is important monitoring sats, and ventilators are at extremis of coping.

If cytokine storm I recommend possible use of IL6 inhibitor, Actemra, but in hospital and under supervision and preferably intravenous.

Post covid autoimmune disease must require corticosteroid plus immunosuppressants.


Where do I think the future is?


All models and experts have dissapointed.


My non expert opinion is that it’s about the deaths not case numbers.

Analysis seems to show a curve peaking at 2 months and lasting 4 months at which death rates drop despite case numbers.

So USA should be much better in terms of mortality risk at mid to end September.

There is NO vaccine coming.

The virus will become less virulent despite contagion over time and will disappear in the next 6 months with a short less toxic resurgence next February.

Cape Town mortality is going to peak now and subside end August, early sept 2020.

Gauteng mortality will subside 6 weeks after Cape Town.

Our lives and economies will slowly recover over the next year, except South Africa will be economically devastated.

We will be in trouble and it’s going to be hard.


Dr David Gotlieb.

July 14 2020

Cape Town South Africa.


—————————————————————————


Covid 19 Diary. 

Personal thoughts and opinions

April 19. 2020

Dr David Gotlieb.

Physician. Rheumatologist.

Cape Town.

South Africa.


There are some terrible harsh realities that the world must accept.


The virus is NOT going away.

The lockdown has been in place, but made us realize that new case numbers persist, and that we are delusional to think we are going to kill this virus.

The lockdown will NOT get rid of the virus.


To this end we have to accept certain realities.


It’s not about getting rid of the virus, it’s about understanding that we will NOT get rid of it for the next year, or more, as it burns it’s way across the world, until we gradually develop a resistance, or even better, some REAL treatments or vaccines against it.


Unfortunately, we will have to literally start normalizing the consequences of the virus. Some people are going to die and we can only do our best to treat them as they come. We have to accept that it’s an ongoing risk for all of us especially the elderly, and social distancing will be needed for the at risk populations.

Other diseases and conditions will also need treatment, and we will see a rebound in these as people start to bring their complaints to the hospitals again.


A country as a whole, and its people, as individuals, cannot continue to exist without income.

We have to resume life and the economy, and the politicians have to start to verbalize this TRUTH. 

This TRUTH, is that the virus is NOT going away for a long time, and that some, but in fact, relatively few people, are going to die, compared to the numbers of infections.


It is VERY important to reassure people that the overwhelming majority of people, in fact more than 95% will be fine.

The virus is much more prevalent than people realize.

Spread is already much more than realized, due to failure to count asymptomatic individuals.

The virus is therefore even LESS lethal than thought, since the true ratio of mortality is overestimated, by not including the asymptomatic, as yet, unknown numbers.


Politically...there will be blame: 


Of course , people are blaming Donald Trump.

BUT, It’s not Trumps fault. 

The media have continued their three year resistance against trump, at all cost, and continue to use the virus to “get him”. 

To a degree the media have stirred up emotions, and influenced the world reaction into ongoing lockdowns and staggering destruction of economies, that are leading to incredible poverty, the consequences of which, are still to come.


NO country or government could have been prepared for this.

The expert advisors, ie Dr Fauci, amongst others, did NOT know what the realities of this virus are. There WAS no experience on this issue. Models were and are still, all wrong, because there has NEVER been a similar problem. 

The lockdowns have not worked to CURE the virus. 

The lockdowns did work in one respect...they lowered the curve of acute admissions and bought time, and enabled the systems to develop a better public health coping ability.

Contrary to media disinformation, Trump HAS listened to the experts. At every stage he followed their advice. Their advice has not worked to CURE the virus. 

NOTHING, would have worked.


It’s about EXPECTATIONS of the public. 


The ONE mistake, has been, to give the public the expectation that the virus will be GONE. It will NOT go in short or medium term.

The reality is that the lockdown has only enabled healthcare to cope by lowering the rapid spread and mass presentation of acute illness 

But the time of lockdowns has passed.


The entire main stream media reaction, has just been aimed at Trump, not the virus. 

The media are spreading inappropriate expectations for a political end.

Worse, the media are to blame for the ongoing attack and demise of hope. 

Hope is a human requirement. 

The media need to look at themselves and stop their ongoing negativity, which is simply based on their hatred for Donald Trump.


If anything China bares largest responsibility for this literal viral Chernobyl facing the world, be it spread from their disgusting wet markets, or even worse, the claims of viral construction in a lab, that got out into communities.

The truth has not come out of China and still does not do so, and in all likelihood, will NEVER do so.

The world health organization, W.H.O, also bears a major responsibility for underestimating the severity and the contagious component of corona virus, and inappropriately defending Chinese disinformation, and failing in the early response to spread of the virus.


So what is going to happen?


The virus will stay in the communities, until either natural resistance increases, or less likely, a vaccine is developed.

The virus will spread and many people will get sick, but MOST will be fine.

Some people who are at risk will get the virus, and regrettably may not survive.

We have to accept that it’s an ongoing risk for all of us especially the elderly, and social distancing will be needed for these at risk populations.

The economies will have to open up.

Life will go on.

Humanity will survive.

Hopefully humanity will learn from this.

Humanity must henceforth look after the entire planet including wildlife, the environment and preserve it.

People need to learn the fundamentals of life, especially togetherness and caring and thought for the less fortunate.


There is hope, because at the end, hope is all we as a species have.

The road ahead is going to be very hard.

Keep strong. Keep safe. 

Hold on to your hope.

And for those who have faith...keep that too!


David Gotlieb.

Physician, Rheumatologist.

Cape Town.

April 19th 2020.


—————————————


—————————————————————


COVID conversations August  19th 2020.

An update.


The virus is dissipating. Deaths are reducing despite surges.

It’s not about numbers, it’s about the deaths.

We still need to protect the vulnerable especially the elderly..


My predictions re the covid 19 epidemic seem to be coming true.


The surges are not associated with surges in deaths.

The virus will dissipate by itself.

There are no vaccines coming.


Deaths take place over 4 months no matter where in the world.


In Cape Town, we were first in the country due to the tourism issue, we are 6 weeks ahead of the rest of the country.

Our deaths will subside at end August / early September.

The rest of the country, deaths will subside mid October.

Surges will follow BUT DEATHS WILL NOT DRAMATICALLY SURGE.

In the USA, New York was first and death rates are now VERY low. 

The rest of the country, ie Florida, is 6 weeks after New York.

Deaths are already subsiding.


SURGES WILL OCCUR BUT NOT DEATHS.

Economies must opened after the deaths dissipate.

It’s NOT ABOUT CASE NUMBERS.

We will still need to protect the vulnerable, especially the elderly.


A vaccine is not coming and the virus will dissipate by itself, in terms of virulence and increased community resistance.


Dr David Gotlieb.

August 19 2020.

Cape Town

South Africa.


——————————————————————————


Covid report July 2020


July 14 2020


My Covid opinion update to my article from April this year.

Covid and covid therapeutic update 


My article from April, remains as relevant now as when I wrote it.

I would not change any aspect of its content, but further addition is required.


This represents an update on how I see it.


I still am a hydroxy/chlo supporter, and a recent study supported it.

The previous studies were at excessive doses and showed some cardio toxicity.

However normal doses are safe.

I suggest consider the following, with your doctors guidance.

If exposed AND develop symptoms consider start chloroquine sulphate 200mg one daily or hydroxychloroquine 400mg daily. Continue until better.

If start a cough..start azithromycin one daily for 6 days

If become breathlessness..you would need admission and at that time steroids can be started.

I would only use the cortisone in hospital use.

NB

I would also use a cardiovascular dose ecotrin or aspirin if symptomatic.

In hospital low molecular weight heparins should be added to aspirin for more comprehensive anticoagulation.

Oxygen is important monitoring sats, and ventilators are at extremis of coping.

If cytokine storm I recommend possible use of IL6 inhibitor, Actemra, but in hospital and under supervision and preferably intravenous.

Post covid autoimmune disease must require corticosteroid plus immunosuppressants.


Where do I think the future is?


All models and experts have dissapointed.


My non expert opinion is that it’s about the deaths not case numbers.

Analysis seems to show a curve peaking at 2 months and lasting 4 months at which death rates drop despite case numbers.

So USA should be much better in terms of mortality risk at mid to end September.

There is NO vaccine coming.

The virus will become less virulent despite contagion over time and will disappear in the next 6 months with a short less toxic resurgence next February.

Cape Town mortality is going to peak now and subside end August, early sept 2020.

Gauteng mortality will subside 6 weeks after Cape Town.

Our lives and economies will slowly recover over the next year, except South Africa will be economically devastated.

We will be in trouble and it’s going to be hard.


Dr David Gotlieb.

July 14 2020

Cape Town South Africa.


—————————————————————————


Covid 19 Diary. 

Personal thoughts and opinions

April 19. 2020

Dr David Gotlieb.

Physician. Rheumatologist.

Cape Town.

South Africa.


There are some terrible harsh realities that the world must accept.


The virus is NOT going away.

The lockdown has been in place, but made us realize that new case numbers persist, and that we are delusional to think we are going to kill this virus.

The lockdown will NOT get rid of the virus.


To this end we have to accept certain realities.


It’s not about getting rid of the virus, it’s about understanding that we will NOT get rid of it for the next year, or more, as it burns it’s way across the world, until we gradually develop a resistance, or even better, some REAL treatments or vaccines against it.


Unfortunately, we will have to literally start normalizing the consequences of the virus. Some people are going to die and we can only do our best to treat them as they come. We have to accept that it’s an ongoing risk for all of us especially the elderly, and social distancing will be needed for the at risk populations.

Other diseases and conditions will also need treatment, and we will see a rebound in these as people start to bring their complaints to the hospitals again.


A country as a whole, and its people, as individuals, cannot continue to exist without income.

We have to resume life and the economy, and the politicians have to start to verbalize this TRUTH. 

This TRUTH, is that the virus is NOT going away for a long time, and that some, but in fact, relatively few people, are going to die, compared to the numbers of infections.


It is VERY important to reassure people that the overwhelming majority of people, in fact more than 95% will be fine.

The virus is much more prevalent than people realize.

Spread is already much more than realized, due to failure to count asymptomatic individuals.

The virus is therefore even LESS lethal than thought, since the true ratio of mortality is overestimated, by not including the asymptomatic, as yet, unknown numbers.


Politically...there will be blame: 


Of course , people are blaming Donald Trump.

BUT, It’s not Trumps fault. 

The media have continued their three year resistance against trump, at all cost, and continue to use the virus to “get him”. 

To a degree the media have stirred up emotions, and influenced the world reaction into ongoing lockdowns and staggering destruction of economies, that are leading to incredible poverty, the consequences of which, are still to come.


NO country or government could have been prepared for this.

The expert advisors, ie Dr Fauci, amongst others, did NOT know what the realities of this virus are. There WAS no experience on this issue. Models were and are still, all wrong, because there has NEVER been a similar problem. 

The lockdowns have not worked to CURE the virus. 

The lockdowns did work in one respect...they lowered the curve of acute admissions and bought time, and enabled the systems to develop a better public health coping ability.

Contrary to media disinformation, Trump HAS listened to the experts. At every stage he followed their advice. Their advice has not worked to CURE the virus. 

NOTHING, would have worked.


It’s about EXPECTATIONS of the public. 


The ONE mistake, has been, to give the public the expectation that the virus will be GONE. It will NOT go in short or medium term.

The reality is that the lockdown has only enabled healthcare to cope by lowering the rapid spread and mass presentation of acute illness 

But the time of lockdowns has passed.


The entire main stream media reaction, has just been aimed at Trump, not the virus. 

The media are spreading inappropriate expectations for a political end.

Worse, the media are to blame for the ongoing attack and demise of hope. 

Hope is a human requirement. 

The media need to look at themselves and stop their ongoing negativity, which is simply based on their hatred for Donald Trump.


If anything China bares largest responsibility for this literal viral Chernobyl facing the world, be it spread from their disgusting wet markets, or even worse, the claims of viral construction in a lab, that got out into communities.

The truth has not come out of China and still does not do so, and in all likelihood, will NEVER do so.

The world health organization, W.H.O, also bears a major responsibility for underestimating the severity and the contagious component of corona virus, and inappropriately defending Chinese disinformation, and failing in the early response to spread of the virus.


So what is going to happen?


The virus will stay in the communities, until either natural resistance increases, or less likely, a vaccine is developed.

The virus will spread and many people will get sick, but MOST will be fine.

Some people who are at risk will get the virus, and regrettably may not survive.

We have to accept that it’s an ongoing risk for all of us especially the elderly, and social distancing will be needed for these at risk populations.

The economies will have to open up.

Life will go on.

Humanity will survive.

Hopefully humanity will learn from this.

Humanity must henceforth look after the entire planet including wildlife, the environment and preserve it.

People need to learn the fundamentals of life, especially togetherness and caring and thought for the less fortunate.


There is hope, because at the end, hope is all we as a species have.

The road ahead is going to be very hard.

Keep strong. Keep safe. 

Hold on to your hope.

And for those who have faith...keep that too!


David Gotlieb.

Physician, Rheumatologist.

Cape Town.

April 19th 2020.


——————————————————


Data from worldometers.info